Will My Home Burn Down? Understanding Your Real Wildfire Risk

# Will My Home Burn Down? Understanding Your Real Wildfire Risk

The honest answer: it depends. Not on luck. On preparation.

During the 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires, homes on the same street had completely different outcomes. One house gone, the neighbor's standing. The difference wasn't random.

## How homes actually ignite

Fire research has identified three ignition paths:

**Direct flame contact (about 10% of home losses)**
The fire front reaches your property with active flames. At this point, you need professional firefighting. But in mega-fires, departments are spread across miles of active fire. They can't reach everyone.

**Radiant heat (about 20%)**
Heat from nearby flames cracks windows, ignites siding, starts fires without direct contact. Distance from vegetation and fire-resistant materials matter here.

**Ember attack (about 70%)**
This is how most homes burn. Embers travel over a mile ahead of flames, landing on roofs, in gutters, under decks, through vents. One ember finding dry material can ignite your home before flames ever arrive.

## What actually works

**Zone 0 (0-5 feet from your walls):**
Non-combustible materials only. No vegetation touching the structure. Ember-resistant vents. Metal or Class A fire-rated roof.

**Zone 1 (5-30 feet):**
Low-fuel vegetation. Tree crowns at least 10 feet from the structure. No fuel ladders connecting ground cover to tree canopy.

**Structural hardening:**
Dual-pane windows (single pane cracks in heat). Enclosed eaves. Non-combustible fencing within 5 feet. Metal gutters with guards.

## The Woolsey Fire, 2017

I almost lost my in-laws' house in that fire. My brother and I stayed to defend it—clearing vegetation, wetting down the structure, watching for embers. The house survived.

Neighbors who evacuated without doing prep work lost everything.

That's not a judgment. Evacuation is the right call for most people. But it taught me something: preparation separates survival from loss.

## Your actual risk factors

- How close you are to wildland vegetation
- Slope (fire moves faster uphill)
- Vegetation type (eucalyptus and chaparral burn hot and fast)
- Your building materials and hardening level
- Whether fire trucks can reach you

## The uncomfortable math

In fire country, the question isn't whether wildfire will come. It's whether your home survives when it does.

You can't control weather or lightning. You can control your home's vulnerability. Every ember-resistant vent, every foot of defensible space, every hardened element changes the probability.

A professional assessment tells you exactly where your vulnerabilities are and what to fix first.